Friday, 5 February 2010

Thursday Wrap Up

(Click on the above picture to see a larger image)

Technical issues still prevail. The day saw narrow ranges and began at 09:15 with signals in EUR, CAD and CHF. These were followed by trades in GBP, JPY and AUD. However, only the GBP trade met its target whilst the CHF trade was stopped and all other positions were closed at entry price at the session end.

You can see from the above screenshot that the big moves of the day occurred after the release of the US economic data. We expect the market will take a little time to digest this information together with Friday's scheduled data releases.

We are at an interesting crossroads: market expectations are for interest rates to rise around the world and the first country to raise their rates will see heavy buying of their currency. We may see high volatility in currency prices as rates begin to rise. But the side effects of a dramatically strengthening or weakening currency are undesirable and it is likely that Central Banks will try to "co-ordinate" such rate rises. But with global economies still weak and the systemic risks posed by the dire financial health of several countries most notably Greece and US states e.g. California, raising rates to moderate growth & slow inflation will be tricky: too early and growth could be slowed to a standstill; too late and inflationary forces may take hold.

In short, while the central banks play a game of chicken with inflation, the FOREX market should be very exciting and offer profitable trading opportunities. We hope to help you make decent profits during this period.